Democrats build 2-1 edge in collecting absentee ballots
Posted: Monday, October 23, 2006
DES MOINES (AP) -- Democrats have requested nearly twice as many absentee ballots as Republicans, an edge that Democratic operatives said could be a key to ensuring a big turnout Nov. 7.
"It could make a difference of a point or two, and I'll take that this year," said veteran Democratic strategist Jeff Link.
Republicans counter that the GOP has a better Election Day turnout operation that will more than offset the Democrats' early voting advantage.
"They had the edge in 2004 as well, but there was a superior get-out-the-vote effort by Republicans, which is why Bush carried the state," said former Iowa Republican Chairman Michael Mahaffey.
While there are arguments about the significance, there's no doubt that Democrats have built an edge in absentee ballots. State election officials said that as of the weekly count on Oct. 18, 136,796 absentee ballots had been sent to voters, including 77,611 to Democrats and 38,192 to Republicans. Another 20,993 have gone to voters who haven't declared a party preference.
The emphasis on absentee ballots has shifted over time.
For years, Republicans focused on absentee ballots to make it easier for party members who wintered outside Iowa to cast ballots. In the last couple election cycles, however, Democrats have targeted absentee ballots more heavily.
Democratic Party strategists argue that a smaller percentage of Democrats than Republicans show up for nonpresidential elections. Identifying Democratic leaning voters and delivering them absentee ballots is a good way to lower that voting dropoff.
"About one-third of those people identified wouldn't ordinarily go vote," said Link. "That's how many of them are falloff voters."
Steve Roberts, a Des Moines lawyer who sits on the Republican National Committee, said the issue is simply one of differing priorities.
"We put the emphasis on getting out the vote on Election Day," Roberts said.
The GOP has a 72-hour voter turnout program that tops anything the Democrats can match, Roberts said.
Former Iowa Democratic Chairman Rob Tully, also a Des Moines lawyer, said Democrats failed in the last election cycle.
"The Democrats were caught sleeping at the wheel in the presidential race in Iowa," said Tully. "We're not going to let that happen again."
The surge in absentee ballots may have one final consequence -- uncertainty in election results.
Because state law requires only that absentee ballots be postmarked by Election Day, valid ballots can arrive at county auditors' offices for a couple days after the election.
Iowa prides itself on local control, and county auditors handle ballots in different ways. Some count absentees on Election Day, assuming that only a handful will come later. Others count them the next day, and still others insist on waiting until they are sure all have arrived.
That can leave the outcome in doubt, should an election be close. It was several days after the 2004 election before news organizations could determine that President Bush had captured Iowa's seven electoral votes by a margin of 12,000 votes out of the 1.5 million cast.
"It could make a difference of a point or two, and I'll take that this year," said veteran Democratic strategist Jeff Link.
Republicans counter that the GOP has a better Election Day turnout operation that will more than offset the Democrats' early voting advantage.
"They had the edge in 2004 as well, but there was a superior get-out-the-vote effort by Republicans, which is why Bush carried the state," said former Iowa Republican Chairman Michael Mahaffey.
While there are arguments about the significance, there's no doubt that Democrats have built an edge in absentee ballots. State election officials said that as of the weekly count on Oct. 18, 136,796 absentee ballots had been sent to voters, including 77,611 to Democrats and 38,192 to Republicans. Another 20,993 have gone to voters who haven't declared a party preference.
The emphasis on absentee ballots has shifted over time.
For years, Republicans focused on absentee ballots to make it easier for party members who wintered outside Iowa to cast ballots. In the last couple election cycles, however, Democrats have targeted absentee ballots more heavily.
Democratic Party strategists argue that a smaller percentage of Democrats than Republicans show up for nonpresidential elections. Identifying Democratic leaning voters and delivering them absentee ballots is a good way to lower that voting dropoff.
"About one-third of those people identified wouldn't ordinarily go vote," said Link. "That's how many of them are falloff voters."
Steve Roberts, a Des Moines lawyer who sits on the Republican National Committee, said the issue is simply one of differing priorities.
"We put the emphasis on getting out the vote on Election Day," Roberts said.
The GOP has a 72-hour voter turnout program that tops anything the Democrats can match, Roberts said.
Former Iowa Democratic Chairman Rob Tully, also a Des Moines lawyer, said Democrats failed in the last election cycle.
"The Democrats were caught sleeping at the wheel in the presidential race in Iowa," said Tully. "We're not going to let that happen again."
The surge in absentee ballots may have one final consequence -- uncertainty in election results.
Because state law requires only that absentee ballots be postmarked by Election Day, valid ballots can arrive at county auditors' offices for a couple days after the election.
Iowa prides itself on local control, and county auditors handle ballots in different ways. Some count absentees on Election Day, assuming that only a handful will come later. Others count them the next day, and still others insist on waiting until they are sure all have arrived.
That can leave the outcome in doubt, should an election be close. It was several days after the 2004 election before news organizations could determine that President Bush had captured Iowa's seven electoral votes by a margin of 12,000 votes out of the 1.5 million cast.
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James wrote on Oct 23, 2006 10:56 AM: