Stakes are high for Iowa Straw Poll
By Charlotte Eby Journal Des Moines Bureau | Posted: Saturday, August 04, 2007
DES MOINES -- The center of GOP presidential politics will shift to Ames next Saturday as the Republican White House hopefuls aim for a strong finish in the Iowa Straw Poll, a closely watched test of their strength five months before the caucuses.
Republican Party of Iowa Executive Director Chuck Laudner said the campaigns are working overtime in the closing days to turn out supporters because the stakes are so high.
"It's just the simple, awful truth that two or three candidates aren't going to survive the day, and so a lot rides on this event," Laudner said.
Close to 40,000 Iowa Republican activists are expected to travel from across the state to the Iowa State University campus where the straw poll is held.
They will find a festive atmosphere where campaigns have pitched lavish hospitality tents for straw poll attendees, complete with musical entertainment and barbecue.
Inside Hilton Coliseum, the presidential candidates will deliver speeches they hope will convince activists to cast ballots for them in the straw poll.
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is widely expected to walk away with a first place finish this year, setting off a scramble for second place.
Romney Iowa Campaign manager Gentry Collins said they view the straw poll as a "full-body workout" for their grassroots organization and a dry run of what they need to do on caucus night in January.
They'll be busing supporters into Ames, although Collins was tight-lipped about how many they are bringing in.
"A win is a win, and we'd certainly like to have a win, but this notion that we need to run away with it is baseless. I mean, it's ludicrous," Collins said.
The event will be missing two high-profile contenders. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain opted out of the contest. Their names will still be on the ballot, along with Fred Thompson, who has yet to formally jump into the race.
The event could shape up as a make-or-break moment for many of the lesser-known Republican presidential hopefuls who have spent months campaigning in Iowa and are looking for a finish that catapults them into the national media spotlight.
Laudner calls the battle among Tom Tancredo, Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback and Tommy Thompson to be the break-out candidate "awfully tight." He said the so-called second-tier of candidates are making a bigger push than the last straw poll in 1999.
"They've got boots on the ground. Their candidate's in every county. They're (using) mail and radio and phones, pushing people to get to the straw poll," Laudner said.
The Ames straw poll has long been seen as a contest that winnows the field of candidates, 11 of whom are named on the ballot.
Dennis Goldford, a professor of politics from Drake University, questions how much the results will mean with McCain, Giuliani and Fred Thompson not competing.
"The straw poll could potentially sort out the field as it heads toward the caucuses, but it's still the caucuses that really count," Goldford said.
And yet the straw poll can have lasting implications. Goldford rewinds to lessons learned from the straw poll in1999, which George W. Bush won handily.
"Dan Quayle, Lamar Alexander and Elizabeth Dole had such a poor showing relative to Bush and everybody else that their money dried up right after the straw poll. So the straw poll effectively knocked them out," Goldford said.
State party officials estimate that between one quarter and one third of the people who will turn out on caucus night will attend the straw poll.
The event, at its core, is a fundraiser for the Republican Party of Iowa, which is expected to haul in close to $1 million to help pay for putting on the caucuses.
Bay Buchanan with Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo's campaign said she believes Romney is under a great deal of pressure to win decisively, and that the real battle is playing out on the second tier of candidates.
She likened the straw poll to a pre-season game.
"As we build toward the straw poll we recognize our strengths, and we recognize our weaknesses, and we're able to change our strategy somewhat to become a more powerful organization," Buchanan said.
Roy Tyler, campaign spokesman for Congressman Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., predicts Romney has the straw poll contest sewn up. But he said the campaign is working as hard as it can ahead of the event.
"I think we'll do well. We don't really have a lot of expectations. We're going to do our best," Tyler said.
Charlotte Eby can be reached at (515) 243-0138 or chareby@aol.com.
A not-so-quiet summer
The GOP Iowa Straw Poll is just one of many planned joint appearances by the presidential candidates in August. Othes include:
-- Aug. 5 -- Republican presidential debate, sponsored by ABC, Des Moines
-- Aug. 9 n19 -- Iowa State Fair, Des Moines
-- Aug. 10 -- AARP Republican Candidate Conversations on Health Care and Financial Security at the Iowa State Fair, Des Moines
-- Aug. 11 -- Republican Straw Poll, Ames
-- Aug. 15 -- Iowa Federation of Labor presidential forum, Waterloo
-- Aug. 19 -- Democratic Presidential Debate, sponsored by ABC and the Iowa Democratic Party, Des Moines
-- Aug. 19 -- AARP Democratic Candidate Conversations on Health Care and Financial Security at the Iowa State Fair, Des Moines
Republican Party of Iowa Executive Director Chuck Laudner said the campaigns are working overtime in the closing days to turn out supporters because the stakes are so high.
"It's just the simple, awful truth that two or three candidates aren't going to survive the day, and so a lot rides on this event," Laudner said.
Close to 40,000 Iowa Republican activists are expected to travel from across the state to the Iowa State University campus where the straw poll is held.
They will find a festive atmosphere where campaigns have pitched lavish hospitality tents for straw poll attendees, complete with musical entertainment and barbecue.
Inside Hilton Coliseum, the presidential candidates will deliver speeches they hope will convince activists to cast ballots for them in the straw poll.
Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney is widely expected to walk away with a first place finish this year, setting off a scramble for second place.
Romney Iowa Campaign manager Gentry Collins said they view the straw poll as a "full-body workout" for their grassroots organization and a dry run of what they need to do on caucus night in January.
They'll be busing supporters into Ames, although Collins was tight-lipped about how many they are bringing in.
"A win is a win, and we'd certainly like to have a win, but this notion that we need to run away with it is baseless. I mean, it's ludicrous," Collins said.
The event will be missing two high-profile contenders. Rudy Giuliani and John McCain opted out of the contest. Their names will still be on the ballot, along with Fred Thompson, who has yet to formally jump into the race.
The event could shape up as a make-or-break moment for many of the lesser-known Republican presidential hopefuls who have spent months campaigning in Iowa and are looking for a finish that catapults them into the national media spotlight.
Laudner calls the battle among Tom Tancredo, Mike Huckabee, Sam Brownback and Tommy Thompson to be the break-out candidate "awfully tight." He said the so-called second-tier of candidates are making a bigger push than the last straw poll in 1999.
"They've got boots on the ground. Their candidate's in every county. They're (using) mail and radio and phones, pushing people to get to the straw poll," Laudner said.
The Ames straw poll has long been seen as a contest that winnows the field of candidates, 11 of whom are named on the ballot.
Dennis Goldford, a professor of politics from Drake University, questions how much the results will mean with McCain, Giuliani and Fred Thompson not competing.
"The straw poll could potentially sort out the field as it heads toward the caucuses, but it's still the caucuses that really count," Goldford said.
And yet the straw poll can have lasting implications. Goldford rewinds to lessons learned from the straw poll in1999, which George W. Bush won handily.
"Dan Quayle, Lamar Alexander and Elizabeth Dole had such a poor showing relative to Bush and everybody else that their money dried up right after the straw poll. So the straw poll effectively knocked them out," Goldford said.
State party officials estimate that between one quarter and one third of the people who will turn out on caucus night will attend the straw poll.
The event, at its core, is a fundraiser for the Republican Party of Iowa, which is expected to haul in close to $1 million to help pay for putting on the caucuses.
Bay Buchanan with Colorado Congressman Tom Tancredo's campaign said she believes Romney is under a great deal of pressure to win decisively, and that the real battle is playing out on the second tier of candidates.
She likened the straw poll to a pre-season game.
"As we build toward the straw poll we recognize our strengths, and we recognize our weaknesses, and we're able to change our strategy somewhat to become a more powerful organization," Buchanan said.
Roy Tyler, campaign spokesman for Congressman Duncan Hunter, R-Calif., predicts Romney has the straw poll contest sewn up. But he said the campaign is working as hard as it can ahead of the event.
"I think we'll do well. We don't really have a lot of expectations. We're going to do our best," Tyler said.
Charlotte Eby can be reached at (515) 243-0138 or chareby@aol.com.
A not-so-quiet summer
The GOP Iowa Straw Poll is just one of many planned joint appearances by the presidential candidates in August. Othes include:
-- Aug. 5 -- Republican presidential debate, sponsored by ABC, Des Moines
-- Aug. 9 n19 -- Iowa State Fair, Des Moines
-- Aug. 10 -- AARP Republican Candidate Conversations on Health Care and Financial Security at the Iowa State Fair, Des Moines
-- Aug. 11 -- Republican Straw Poll, Ames
-- Aug. 15 -- Iowa Federation of Labor presidential forum, Waterloo
-- Aug. 19 -- Democratic Presidential Debate, sponsored by ABC and the Iowa Democratic Party, Des Moines
-- Aug. 19 -- AARP Democratic Candidate Conversations on Health Care and Financial Security at the Iowa State Fair, Des Moines
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