Journal poll: Refinery support strong
By Dave Dreeszen Journal business editor | Posted: Sunday, May 04, 2008
A Sioux City Journal poll shows Union County voters poised to approve a proposed oil refinery. But the outcome of a June 3 referendum appears far from certain.
If the election were held today, 46 percent said they would vote yes on the question of whether to rezone a rural site to permit the proposed Hyperion Energy Center. Meanwhile, 31 percent intend to vote no, according to the Journal poll, conducted by Product Systems Inc., an Alexandria, Va., marketing and survey research firm.
Adding respondents leaning one way or the other, support for the project grows to 51 percent -- just below the simple majority required to pass the referendum. Opposition increases to 35 percent.
Twelve percent said they were undecided, a voting bloc potentially large enough to tip the scales either way. Two percent of those polled declined to answer.
"If I was going to bet on this thing right now, I would say it's going to pass," said Sioux City native Craig Tufty, PSI's research project director. "This is not a done deal as far as Hyperion is concerned. I think we're looking at a very close election.
PSI surveyed 340 registered voters in Union County, drawn from the county auditor's database, on April 29. The poll has a 4.795 percent margin of error.
Leaders of Dallas, Texas-based Hyperion Resources Inc. insist they'll take their $10 billion project elsewhere if a majority of Union County voters don't want it. That's raised the stakes for the June 3 referendum. Voters will decide whether to uphold or reject the county commission's March decision to rezone 3,292 acres of farmland that Hyperion optioned just north of Elk Point.
The Journal's poll results reflect the intensity of the months-long campaign over whether the 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery would be an economic boon or potentially an environmental disaster for southeast South Dakota. Eighty-six percent said they are very likely to vote in the June 3 referendum, while another 9 percent said they are somewhat likely.
With the emotionally charged issue garnering scores of media coverage, 62 percent of respondents said they've closely followed developments over the proposed refinery, while another 28 percent said they're keeping tabs somewhat closely.
In a county with just 9,500 registered voters, as few as 3,000 votes could put the referendum over the top, assuming turnout of approximately the all-time record of 65 percent, Tufty said.
In the runup to the election, county election officials report heavy requests for absentee ballots and voter registration forms.
"You're looking at a very, very heavy turnout," Tufty said.
Opposition, support intense
Not surprisingly, the Journal poll shows the most intense opposition coming from areas of the county closest to the refinery site, located in Brule Township, about two miles east of Interstate 29.
One surveyed voter, Brian Small, is a fourth-generation farmer who raises cattle, row crops and hay with his father and his son in Union County just west of Akron, Iowa.
"I live four miles away from it," Small said. "I'm pretty much against it. There was a sour taste in my mouth about it from day one."
Among the county's 13 precincts, the Journal poll shows a general urban-rural split. In unincorporated areas, 36 percent supported the refinery, and 41 percent opposed it. In incorporated areas, 55 percent said they were in favor and 23 percent opposed.
The most enthusiastic support came on the extreme southern and northern ends of the county. In the voter-rich Dakota Dunes area, just across the Big Sioux River from Sioux City, 60 percent support the project, and 17 percent oppose it, according to the poll.
For Hyperion supporters, the energy center's massive job creation and capital investment seemed to be the dominant consideration.
An average of 4,500 construction workers would be required over a 48-month period, with as many as 10,000 laborers on site at the peak. Upon completion, the energy center would employ 1,826 in various skilled positions paying $20 to $30 per hour and create an annual economic impact of $14 billion.
"It goes back to jobs, and it should raise property values," said surveyed voter Corey O'Connor of Jefferson. "It will be a benefit to the whole surrounding area as far as supplies, original equipment manufacturers and materials."
Opponents have focused largely on the health and environmental dangers of putting a huge refinery in their backyard, along with the destruction of their rural way of life.
"Hyperion has told us they will be emitting pollution into the air," said surveyed voter Rumi Weigel, whose rural Elk Point home is three miles from the refinery footprint. "This is going to be year after year. They can tell us it's going to be minimal, but it's going to be year after year."
Weigel, who has three children ages 12 to 17, said she primarily is concerned with the overall effect the refinery will have on the community "not only environmentally, but socially." She cited the shock awaiting thousands of new residents "not familiar with our country way of life."
Demographic differences
The Journal poll also suggests the vote could break down along gender, political and income lines.
Slightly more men than women support the project. When leaners are included, 54 percent of men and 47 percent of women said they will vote. The percentage of women opposed to the project is greater, 38 percent to 24 percent.
With the exception of the youngest voters, the refinery garnered more support than opposition from each of five age groups. Of the 29 voters ages 18 to 24 who were surveyed, 48 percent plan to vote no and 41 percent intend to vote yes.
The most support, 57 percent, came from voters ages 25 to 34, who back the refinery 57 percent to 31 percent. The project also received majority support from voters ages 51 to 64.
According to the Journal poll, mid- to upper-income voters were more likely to support the refinery than lower wage earners. Counting leaners, the project is backed by 57 percent of respondents with annual household incomes of $75,000 or more. With leaners, it's supported by 37 percent of households with incomes between $15,000 and $25,000.
In a county where Republicans outnumber Democrats, the poll suggests a limited partisan divide on the issue. When leaners are included, 54 percent of GOP voters plan to vote yes, compared with 47 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of independents. Counting leaners, 39 percent of Democratic voters plan to oppose the project, compared to 34 percent of Republicans and 30 percent of independents.
Tufty said the Journal poll tracks a survey an anti-refinery citizens group commissioned last September. The Save Union County poll, conducted by Sioux Falls-based RMA Associates, found nearly 51 percent of the 200 Union County voters surveyed in favor of the refinery. Sixteen percent were opposed and 30 percent were undecided.
Using the earlier poll as a guide, Tufty said he would expect many of the voters now undecided to break toward no votes.
"In my estimation, the closer this thing gets to the election, the more it's going to tighten up," he said.
-- Staff writers Michele Linck and Bret Hayworth contributed to this report.
The Journal poll was conducted by PSI, a marketing and survey research firm based in Alexandria, Va.
PSI was founded in 1983 by Sioux City native Craig Tufty, who served as chief of staff to Iowa 6th District Rep. Fred Grandy from 1987 to 1994.
The primary data for the Hyperion survey was obtained through 340 complete, five- to seven-minute telephone interviews on April 29. PSI made 7,137 random phone attempts to obtain the final sample size. Only residents who were listed as active registered voters and lived at the listed addresses were interviewed.
The names were drawn from a computer database maintained by the Union County Auditor's Office. Each registered active voter with a valid telephone number had an equal opportunity of being selected to participate in the survey. Only registered and active voters were called.
The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.795 percent with a 93 percent degree of confidence.]]>
-- The Journal poll indicates voters ages 18-24 are less likely to support the project, are more apprehensive about environmental concerns and say they are more likely to leave the county if the zoning change is approved. Why are young people concerned about Hyperion?
-- Young people aren't the only residents who might leave Union County if voters OK Hyperion's rezoning request. Many of those living closest to the plant say they, too, might leave if the zoning change is approved.
-- How many voters will be holding their nose while voting yes on June 3? Not many. Supporters appear steadfast, indicating they have little concern about environmental, health and other impacts of the proposed refinery project.
Coming Tuesday
-- How much do voters trust the data and information provided by Hyperion? Do they believe they've had enough time and information to cast an informed vote? The answers may surprise you.
-- Where will the money come from? Hyperion has asked for federal assistance, but company officials insist that's one of many options they are pursuing ahead of the June 3 referendum.
Coming Wednesday
-- The Journal poll reveals clear battle lines for supporters and opponents of the proposed refinery. Find out who will be feeling the campaign heat in the month leading up to the June 3 decision.
Online
-- Get the latest news and information, read the Hyperion blog and watch video related to Hyperion's proposal at www.siouxcityjournal.com/hyperion.]]>
Product Systems Inc., an Alexandria, Va., marketing and research firm, is led by president and CEO Craig W. Tufty.
Tufty graduated with a bachelor's degree in political science from the University of Iowa in 1972. He worked as a district aide to Iowa 6th District Congressman Wiley Mayne from 1973 to 1975. In 1975, he co-founded Northern Auto Parts Warehouse in Sioux City and served as president and CEO from 1975 to 1986.
From 1987 to 1994, Tufty was chief of staff to Iowa 6th District Congressman Fred Grandy. In 1983, he founded PSI.]]>
Just in case you haven't been paying attention until now, the "green" energy center being touted by Dallas-based Hyperion Resources Inc. would carry an estimate price tag of $9 billion to $10 billion, making it the second largest investment in U.S. history behind Boston's Big Dig. It would be the first oil refinery built in this country since 1976.
To put that in a local perspective, the energy center would be more than 20 times larger than Siouxland's single most expensive capital investment -- BPI's $400 million expansion of its South Sioux City complex.
Hyperion's labor component would be similarly gigantic. An average of 4,500 construction workers would be required over a 48-month period, with as many as 10,000 laborers on site at the peak. Upon completion, the energy center would employ 1,826 -- nearly equal to Elk Point's current population -- in various skilled positions paying $20 to $30 per hour.
In addition, an estimated 7,500 full- and part-time jobs would be created indirectly through start-ups of suppliers, vendors or spinoffs, or by existing businesses expanding their work forces, according to a comprehensive study that Stuefen Research, a Vermillion, S.D. firm, prepared for Hyperion.
The 52-page report prepared by Randy Stuefen, a University of South Dakota economics professor emeritus who now runs his own consulting firm, measures the economic impact on the state of South Dakota, Sioux, Plymouth and Woodbury counties in Iowa, and Dixon, Dakota and Cedar counties in Nebraska.
The 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery would produce an estimated $14 billion annual economic impact and add $1.2 billion in new wealth each year, according to the study. It would also create a huge financial windfall for the state, county and local school district, adding $50 million annually in state sales tax receipts and nearly tripling Union County's taxable property valuation to $3.4 billion.
Opponents, meanwhile, largely point to the potential health and environmental dangers of putting a huge refinery in their backyard, as well as the destruction of their rural way of life.
-- Dave Dreeszen and Michele Linck
-- Editor's note: This story has been corrected to accurately identifty the name of Product Systems Inc. research director Craig Tufty.
]]>
If the election were held today, 46 percent said they would vote yes on the question of whether to rezone a rural site to permit the proposed Hyperion Energy Center. Meanwhile, 31 percent intend to vote no, according to the Journal poll, conducted by Product Systems Inc., an Alexandria, Va., marketing and survey research firm.
Adding respondents leaning one way or the other, support for the project grows to 51 percent -- just below the simple majority required to pass the referendum. Opposition increases to 35 percent.
Twelve percent said they were undecided, a voting bloc potentially large enough to tip the scales either way. Two percent of those polled declined to answer.
"If I was going to bet on this thing right now, I would say it's going to pass," said Sioux City native Craig Tufty, PSI's research project director. "This is not a done deal as far as Hyperion is concerned. I think we're looking at a very close election.
PSI surveyed 340 registered voters in Union County, drawn from the county auditor's database, on April 29. The poll has a 4.795 percent margin of error.
Leaders of Dallas, Texas-based Hyperion Resources Inc. insist they'll take their $10 billion project elsewhere if a majority of Union County voters don't want it. That's raised the stakes for the June 3 referendum. Voters will decide whether to uphold or reject the county commission's March decision to rezone 3,292 acres of farmland that Hyperion optioned just north of Elk Point.
The Journal's poll results reflect the intensity of the months-long campaign over whether the 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery would be an economic boon or potentially an environmental disaster for southeast South Dakota. Eighty-six percent said they are very likely to vote in the June 3 referendum, while another 9 percent said they are somewhat likely.
With the emotionally charged issue garnering scores of media coverage, 62 percent of respondents said they've closely followed developments over the proposed refinery, while another 28 percent said they're keeping tabs somewhat closely.
In a county with just 9,500 registered voters, as few as 3,000 votes could put the referendum over the top, assuming turnout of approximately the all-time record of 65 percent, Tufty said.
In the runup to the election, county election officials report heavy requests for absentee ballots and voter registration forms.
"You're looking at a very, very heavy turnout," Tufty said.
Opposition, support intense
Not surprisingly, the Journal poll shows the most intense opposition coming from areas of the county closest to the refinery site, located in Brule Township, about two miles east of Interstate 29.
One surveyed voter, Brian Small, is a fourth-generation farmer who raises cattle, row crops and hay with his father and his son in Union County just west of Akron, Iowa.
"I live four miles away from it," Small said. "I'm pretty much against it. There was a sour taste in my mouth about it from day one."
Among the county's 13 precincts, the Journal poll shows a general urban-rural split. In unincorporated areas, 36 percent supported the refinery, and 41 percent opposed it. In incorporated areas, 55 percent said they were in favor and 23 percent opposed.
The most enthusiastic support came on the extreme southern and northern ends of the county. In the voter-rich Dakota Dunes area, just across the Big Sioux River from Sioux City, 60 percent support the project, and 17 percent oppose it, according to the poll.
For Hyperion supporters, the energy center's massive job creation and capital investment seemed to be the dominant consideration.
An average of 4,500 construction workers would be required over a 48-month period, with as many as 10,000 laborers on site at the peak. Upon completion, the energy center would employ 1,826 in various skilled positions paying $20 to $30 per hour and create an annual economic impact of $14 billion.
"It goes back to jobs, and it should raise property values," said surveyed voter Corey O'Connor of Jefferson. "It will be a benefit to the whole surrounding area as far as supplies, original equipment manufacturers and materials."
Opponents have focused largely on the health and environmental dangers of putting a huge refinery in their backyard, along with the destruction of their rural way of life.
"Hyperion has told us they will be emitting pollution into the air," said surveyed voter Rumi Weigel, whose rural Elk Point home is three miles from the refinery footprint. "This is going to be year after year. They can tell us it's going to be minimal, but it's going to be year after year."
Weigel, who has three children ages 12 to 17, said she primarily is concerned with the overall effect the refinery will have on the community "not only environmentally, but socially." She cited the shock awaiting thousands of new residents "not familiar with our country way of life."
Demographic differences
The Journal poll also suggests the vote could break down along gender, political and income lines.
Slightly more men than women support the project. When leaners are included, 54 percent of men and 47 percent of women said they will vote. The percentage of women opposed to the project is greater, 38 percent to 24 percent.
With the exception of the youngest voters, the refinery garnered more support than opposition from each of five age groups. Of the 29 voters ages 18 to 24 who were surveyed, 48 percent plan to vote no and 41 percent intend to vote yes.
The most support, 57 percent, came from voters ages 25 to 34, who back the refinery 57 percent to 31 percent. The project also received majority support from voters ages 51 to 64.
According to the Journal poll, mid- to upper-income voters were more likely to support the refinery than lower wage earners. Counting leaners, the project is backed by 57 percent of respondents with annual household incomes of $75,000 or more. With leaners, it's supported by 37 percent of households with incomes between $15,000 and $25,000.
In a county where Republicans outnumber Democrats, the poll suggests a limited partisan divide on the issue. When leaners are included, 54 percent of GOP voters plan to vote yes, compared with 47 percent of Democrats and 51 percent of independents. Counting leaners, 39 percent of Democratic voters plan to oppose the project, compared to 34 percent of Republicans and 30 percent of independents.
Tufty said the Journal poll tracks a survey an anti-refinery citizens group commissioned last September. The Save Union County poll, conducted by Sioux Falls-based RMA Associates, found nearly 51 percent of the 200 Union County voters surveyed in favor of the refinery. Sixteen percent were opposed and 30 percent were undecided.
Using the earlier poll as a guide, Tufty said he would expect many of the voters now undecided to break toward no votes.
"In my estimation, the closer this thing gets to the election, the more it's going to tighten up," he said.
-- Staff writers Michele Linck and Bret Hayworth contributed to this report.
PSI was founded in 1983 by Sioux City native Craig Tufty, who served as chief of staff to Iowa 6th District Rep. Fred Grandy from 1987 to 1994.
The primary data for the Hyperion survey was obtained through 340 complete, five- to seven-minute telephone interviews on April 29. PSI made 7,137 random phone attempts to obtain the final sample size. Only residents who were listed as active registered voters and lived at the listed addresses were interviewed.
The names were drawn from a computer database maintained by the Union County Auditor's Office. Each registered active voter with a valid telephone number had an equal opportunity of being selected to participate in the survey. Only registered and active voters were called.
The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4.795 percent with a 93 percent degree of confidence.]]>
-- Young people aren't the only residents who might leave Union County if voters OK Hyperion's rezoning request. Many of those living closest to the plant say they, too, might leave if the zoning change is approved.
-- How many voters will be holding their nose while voting yes on June 3? Not many. Supporters appear steadfast, indicating they have little concern about environmental, health and other impacts of the proposed refinery project.
Coming Tuesday
-- How much do voters trust the data and information provided by Hyperion? Do they believe they've had enough time and information to cast an informed vote? The answers may surprise you.
-- Where will the money come from? Hyperion has asked for federal assistance, but company officials insist that's one of many options they are pursuing ahead of the June 3 referendum.
Coming Wednesday
-- The Journal poll reveals clear battle lines for supporters and opponents of the proposed refinery. Find out who will be feeling the campaign heat in the month leading up to the June 3 decision.
Online
-- Get the latest news and information, read the Hyperion blog and watch video related to Hyperion's proposal at www.siouxcityjournal.com/hyperion.]]>
Tufty graduated with a bachelor's degree in political science from the University of Iowa in 1972. He worked as a district aide to Iowa 6th District Congressman Wiley Mayne from 1973 to 1975. In 1975, he co-founded Northern Auto Parts Warehouse in Sioux City and served as president and CEO from 1975 to 1986.
From 1987 to 1994, Tufty was chief of staff to Iowa 6th District Congressman Fred Grandy. In 1983, he founded PSI.]]>
Just in case you haven't been paying attention until now, the "green" energy center being touted by Dallas-based Hyperion Resources Inc. would carry an estimate price tag of $9 billion to $10 billion, making it the second largest investment in U.S. history behind Boston's Big Dig. It would be the first oil refinery built in this country since 1976.
To put that in a local perspective, the energy center would be more than 20 times larger than Siouxland's single most expensive capital investment -- BPI's $400 million expansion of its South Sioux City complex.
Hyperion's labor component would be similarly gigantic. An average of 4,500 construction workers would be required over a 48-month period, with as many as 10,000 laborers on site at the peak. Upon completion, the energy center would employ 1,826 -- nearly equal to Elk Point's current population -- in various skilled positions paying $20 to $30 per hour.
In addition, an estimated 7,500 full- and part-time jobs would be created indirectly through start-ups of suppliers, vendors or spinoffs, or by existing businesses expanding their work forces, according to a comprehensive study that Stuefen Research, a Vermillion, S.D. firm, prepared for Hyperion.
The 52-page report prepared by Randy Stuefen, a University of South Dakota economics professor emeritus who now runs his own consulting firm, measures the economic impact on the state of South Dakota, Sioux, Plymouth and Woodbury counties in Iowa, and Dixon, Dakota and Cedar counties in Nebraska.
The 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery would produce an estimated $14 billion annual economic impact and add $1.2 billion in new wealth each year, according to the study. It would also create a huge financial windfall for the state, county and local school district, adding $50 million annually in state sales tax receipts and nearly tripling Union County's taxable property valuation to $3.4 billion.
Opponents, meanwhile, largely point to the potential health and environmental dangers of putting a huge refinery in their backyard, as well as the destruction of their rural way of life.
-- Dave Dreeszen and Michele Linck
-- Editor's note: This story has been corrected to accurately identifty the name of Product Systems Inc. research director Craig Tufty.
]]>
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bighillgirl wrote on May 13, 2008 6:19 PM:
StopHype wrote on May 12, 2008 1:32 PM:
"
Steven wrote on May 9, 2008 11:01 AM:
Dear Steven wrote on May 6, 2008 10:17 AM:
It could be put in a less populated area.....They still would have to drive there. PS, Food is a wonderful thing! Mmmmmmmmm "
Alsen Resident wrote on May 5, 2008 3:31 PM: