Who's Oscar bound?
By Bruce R. Miller | Posted: Friday, December 05, 2008
Heath Ledger? Check.
Meryl Streep? Of course.
Sean Penn, Kate Winslet, Frank Langella? You bet.
But, then, what? Who will be nominated for Oscars? Much hinges on the all-important December releases.
No month has more prestige films than the last one of the year. It's the old "out of sight" factor. Distributors think voters will forget them if they come out earlier in the year. So, they glut the last month of the year and hope for the best.
That means movie fans better make tracks if they want to see the year's best.
In the hunt:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Release: Dec. 25) Based on an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, this gives Brad Pitt his strongest shot yet at a Best Actor Oscar. He plays a man who ages in reverse -- he starts out then, then gets younger. In the middle, he falls for Cate Blanchett and has to deal with the problem of time. Oscar potential: Strong. Pitt and Blanchett are acting contenders. David Fincher is a directing force. Add in special effects and costumes and this could be one of the Best Picture contenders.
Defiance (Release: Dec. 12) World War II. Nazis. True story. Those three almost guarantee Oscar buzz. Here, Daniel Craig, Liev Schreiber and Jamie Bell play brothers who led a resistance campaign in Belarus. Director Ed Zwick has been to the Oscar race before. Oscar potential: Good. But there are a lot of World War II dramas lurking this year. Some are going to have to get shut out.
Doubt (Release: Dec.12) Meryl Streep plays a strong-willed principal (who's also a sister) who thinks a priest (Philip Seymour Hoffman) has molested a boy. In the mix: a young sister (Amy Adams) who has her own agenda. Oscar potential: It's Meryl Streep. According to Oscar law, she has to be nominated. It's a rule of the universe. Hoffman is golden, too. But Viola Davis, as the boy's mother stands the best chance of winning. She has a brief role that's a powerhouse. More nominations? Doubtful. There are other "small" films waiting in the wings to take that spot in the Top 5.
Frost/Nixon (Release: Dec. 5) Like "Doubt," this is based on a Broadway play. Unlike "Doubt," it's based in truth. After resigning the presidency, Richard Nixon was pretty mum about his Watergate experience. Then, British producer David Frost came sniffing and offered money for an exclusive interview. In 1977, the two sat down. How that came together forms the basis of "Frost/Nixon," an acting showcase for Frank Langella and Michael Sheen. Langella won the Tony for playing Nixon, so you can see the handwriting on the Oscar ballot. Ron Howard produced and directed. Oscar potential: Great in acting categories; questionable in other areas.
Gran Torino (Release: TBA) Clint Eastwood directs Clint Eastwood in a story about a war vet who confronts his own bigotry when gangs threaten the neighborhood. Oscar potential: Solid. Clint gets nominations. This could be the acting prize he's missing.
Marley and Me (Release: Dec. 25) Jennifer Aniston and Owen Wilson play owners of a goofy dog who touches their heart. It's based on a best seller, so you know the audience is there. Oscar potential: None. It's a dog film. Name the last one that won.
Milk (Release: TBA) Sean Penn stars as Harvey Milk, the gay activist who was assassinated in 1978. Directed by Gus Van Sant, the film features showcases for Emile Hirsch, James Franco and Josh Brolin. Oscar potential: Very strong, particularly in acting categories. Penn is currently the man to beat.
Revolutionary Road (Release: Dec. 26) Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet reunite as a married couple who move to Paris to rekindle a relationship that had all but soured. The film is directed by Winslet's husband (Oscar winner Sam Mendes) who already has "American Beauty" to his credit. Oscar potential: Incredible. Look for Best Picture, Actor, Actress and Director nominations.
The Road (Release: TBA) But, wait! What about this road? Viggo Mortensen stars as a father leading his son across the United States after some harrowing disaster. Based on a Cormac McCarthy novel, it has its fingers on the pulse of plenty. Oscar potential: Um, who wrote "No Country for Old Men"?
Seven Pounds (Release: Dec. 12) Will Smith puts on his dramatic cloak for this story about an IRS agent who finds love in a most unusual way. Oscar potential: For Smith only. But, this is the "Bucket List" of 2008. Get out your hankies.
Slumdog Millionaire (Release: TBA) This is the film with indie cred. In order to impress a girl, a young Indian boy (Dev Patel) gets on the Hindi version of "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?" Directed by Danny Boyle, it has all the heart of "Little Miss Sunshine," all the charm of "Juno." Expect it to be the sleeper. Oscar potential: Great. There's always room for one like this.
The Tale of Despereaux (Release: Dec. 19) A children's book about a mouse forms the basis for this animated film. Oscar potential: Mickey Mouse has an Oscar, doesn't he? What about "Ratatouille"? Pass the cheese.
The Wrestler (Release: TBA) Mickey Rourke (Mickey Rourke?) plays a professional wrestler attempting to make a comeback. It's "Rocky" for the wrestling world and, sources say, it's Rourke at his grizzled best. Oscar potential: For Rourke. Beyond that, don't hold your breath.
The short lists
Best Picture: "The Dark Knight"; "Revolutionary Road"; "WALL*E"; "Slumdog Millionaire"; "Benjamin Button" and "Milk." "Doubt" and "Frost/Nixon" have outside changes.
Best Actor: Clint Eastwood, "Gran Torino"; Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"; Brad Pitt, "Benjamin Button"; Sean Penn, "Milk"; Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt" and Leonardo DiCaprio, "Revolutionary Road" are the leaders. Also think: Josh Brolin, "W"; Dev Patel, "Slumdog Millionaire" and Will Smith, "Seven Pounds"
Best Actress: Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"; Meryl Streep, "Doubt"; Cate Blanchett, "Benjamin Button"; Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road" and Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"; Robert Downey Jr. "Tropic Thunder"; Josh Brolin, "Milk"; James Franco, "Milk" (or even "Pineapple Express"); Michael Sheen, "Frost/Nixon"
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, "Doubt"; Sophie Okonedo, "The Secret Life of Bees"; Amy Adams, "Doubt"; Ari Graynor, "Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist"; Tilda Swinton, "Burn After Reading." Thus far, the category is slim.
Meryl Streep? Of course.
Sean Penn, Kate Winslet, Frank Langella? You bet.
But, then, what? Who will be nominated for Oscars? Much hinges on the all-important December releases.
No month has more prestige films than the last one of the year. It's the old "out of sight" factor. Distributors think voters will forget them if they come out earlier in the year. So, they glut the last month of the year and hope for the best.
That means movie fans better make tracks if they want to see the year's best.
In the hunt:
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button (Release: Dec. 25) Based on an F. Scott Fitzgerald short story, this gives Brad Pitt his strongest shot yet at a Best Actor Oscar. He plays a man who ages in reverse -- he starts out then, then gets younger. In the middle, he falls for Cate Blanchett and has to deal with the problem of time. Oscar potential: Strong. Pitt and Blanchett are acting contenders. David Fincher is a directing force. Add in special effects and costumes and this could be one of the Best Picture contenders.
Defiance (Release: Dec. 12) World War II. Nazis. True story. Those three almost guarantee Oscar buzz. Here, Daniel Craig, Liev Schreiber and Jamie Bell play brothers who led a resistance campaign in Belarus. Director Ed Zwick has been to the Oscar race before. Oscar potential: Good. But there are a lot of World War II dramas lurking this year. Some are going to have to get shut out.
Doubt (Release: Dec.12) Meryl Streep plays a strong-willed principal (who's also a sister) who thinks a priest (Philip Seymour Hoffman) has molested a boy. In the mix: a young sister (Amy Adams) who has her own agenda. Oscar potential: It's Meryl Streep. According to Oscar law, she has to be nominated. It's a rule of the universe. Hoffman is golden, too. But Viola Davis, as the boy's mother stands the best chance of winning. She has a brief role that's a powerhouse. More nominations? Doubtful. There are other "small" films waiting in the wings to take that spot in the Top 5.
Frost/Nixon (Release: Dec. 5) Like "Doubt," this is based on a Broadway play. Unlike "Doubt," it's based in truth. After resigning the presidency, Richard Nixon was pretty mum about his Watergate experience. Then, British producer David Frost came sniffing and offered money for an exclusive interview. In 1977, the two sat down. How that came together forms the basis of "Frost/Nixon," an acting showcase for Frank Langella and Michael Sheen. Langella won the Tony for playing Nixon, so you can see the handwriting on the Oscar ballot. Ron Howard produced and directed. Oscar potential: Great in acting categories; questionable in other areas.
Gran Torino (Release: TBA) Clint Eastwood directs Clint Eastwood in a story about a war vet who confronts his own bigotry when gangs threaten the neighborhood. Oscar potential: Solid. Clint gets nominations. This could be the acting prize he's missing.
Marley and Me (Release: Dec. 25) Jennifer Aniston and Owen Wilson play owners of a goofy dog who touches their heart. It's based on a best seller, so you know the audience is there. Oscar potential: None. It's a dog film. Name the last one that won.
Milk (Release: TBA) Sean Penn stars as Harvey Milk, the gay activist who was assassinated in 1978. Directed by Gus Van Sant, the film features showcases for Emile Hirsch, James Franco and Josh Brolin. Oscar potential: Very strong, particularly in acting categories. Penn is currently the man to beat.
Revolutionary Road (Release: Dec. 26) Leonardo DiCaprio and Kate Winslet reunite as a married couple who move to Paris to rekindle a relationship that had all but soured. The film is directed by Winslet's husband (Oscar winner Sam Mendes) who already has "American Beauty" to his credit. Oscar potential: Incredible. Look for Best Picture, Actor, Actress and Director nominations.
The Road (Release: TBA) But, wait! What about this road? Viggo Mortensen stars as a father leading his son across the United States after some harrowing disaster. Based on a Cormac McCarthy novel, it has its fingers on the pulse of plenty. Oscar potential: Um, who wrote "No Country for Old Men"?
Seven Pounds (Release: Dec. 12) Will Smith puts on his dramatic cloak for this story about an IRS agent who finds love in a most unusual way. Oscar potential: For Smith only. But, this is the "Bucket List" of 2008. Get out your hankies.
Slumdog Millionaire (Release: TBA) This is the film with indie cred. In order to impress a girl, a young Indian boy (Dev Patel) gets on the Hindi version of "Who Wants to Be a Millionaire?" Directed by Danny Boyle, it has all the heart of "Little Miss Sunshine," all the charm of "Juno." Expect it to be the sleeper. Oscar potential: Great. There's always room for one like this.
The Tale of Despereaux (Release: Dec. 19) A children's book about a mouse forms the basis for this animated film. Oscar potential: Mickey Mouse has an Oscar, doesn't he? What about "Ratatouille"? Pass the cheese.
The Wrestler (Release: TBA) Mickey Rourke (Mickey Rourke?) plays a professional wrestler attempting to make a comeback. It's "Rocky" for the wrestling world and, sources say, it's Rourke at his grizzled best. Oscar potential: For Rourke. Beyond that, don't hold your breath.
The short lists
Best Picture: "The Dark Knight"; "Revolutionary Road"; "WALL*E"; "Slumdog Millionaire"; "Benjamin Button" and "Milk." "Doubt" and "Frost/Nixon" have outside changes.
Best Actor: Clint Eastwood, "Gran Torino"; Mickey Rourke, "The Wrestler"; Brad Pitt, "Benjamin Button"; Sean Penn, "Milk"; Philip Seymour Hoffman, "Doubt" and Leonardo DiCaprio, "Revolutionary Road" are the leaders. Also think: Josh Brolin, "W"; Dev Patel, "Slumdog Millionaire" and Will Smith, "Seven Pounds"
Best Actress: Anne Hathaway, "Rachel Getting Married"; Meryl Streep, "Doubt"; Cate Blanchett, "Benjamin Button"; Kate Winslet, "Revolutionary Road" and Angelina Jolie, "Changeling"
Best Supporting Actor: Heath Ledger, "The Dark Knight"; Robert Downey Jr. "Tropic Thunder"; Josh Brolin, "Milk"; James Franco, "Milk" (or even "Pineapple Express"); Michael Sheen, "Frost/Nixon"
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, "Doubt"; Sophie Okonedo, "The Secret Life of Bees"; Amy Adams, "Doubt"; Ari Graynor, "Nick and Norah's Infinite Playlist"; Tilda Swinton, "Burn After Reading." Thus far, the category is slim.
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