Loss of seat could shake up 2012 House race
By Bret Hayworthbhayworth@siouxcityjournal.com | Posted: Sunday, January 04, 2009
The number of congressional seats in Iowa is expected to shrink from five to four after the 2010 census is completed, creating the potential for intriguing U.S. House races in 2012.
Because Iowa's population growth hasn't kept pace with other states, the 2012 congressional races could take place in redrawn districts, certainly larger and perhaps drastically reconfigured. Two of the state's five congressional members would likely be placed in the same district, according to Morningside College political science professor Patrick McKinlay.
Potential scenarios, assuming no incumbents step aside, pit current 5th District Congressman Steve King against 4th District Congressman Tom Latham, both are Republicans, or involve either King or Latham facing off with Democratic 3rd District Congressman Leonard Boswell.
"I don't think you could rule anything out," McKinlay said.
If the state does lose a seat, a nonpartisan commission will draw the congressional district lines. The Legislature must approve the plan.
While political junkies getting excited over those possible races, McKinlay said the Iowa commission has historically kept political considerations out of how the lines are drawn.
"We are well served by our nonpartisan process of doing this, because we need to make sure we are protecting one person, one vote... What makes Iowa unique is that those political questions don't drive the process, or at least they don't drive the first draft," McKinlay said.
King, who lives in Kiron, agreed, saying the five commission members are sworn to secrecy and aren't to take into account the voting registration demographics of the districts or where congress members live. As compared to states where "gerrymandering" of districts takes place, King said, "Iowa has the best redistricting law in the nation."
Iowa, which in the early 20th century reached a high point with 11 congressional seats, now has an estimated population of 3 million. If the drop to four districts occurs, each districts would serve about 750,000 residents, instead of five with about 585,000 residents.
The drawing of the congressional district lines will impact which federal projects lawmakers seek, McKinlay said. He noted that a northwest/north central district containing U.S. Highway 20 from Sioux City to Fort Dodge would mean one congressman could focus much effort on the long-sought project of widening the highway to four lanes.
The 5th District now is the biggest, most rural district in the state, covering 32 counties in western Iowa, from three to five counties wide, from the Minnesota border down to Missouri. It's very reliable GOP turf, where Republicans outnumber Democrats by 45,000. If the 5th District adds heavily rural counties a bit to the east, that district could approach nearly half of the 99 Iowa counties.
Creating another large district "could be a hard thing to swallow" for some Iowans, McKinlay said.
Dick Sokolowski of Holstein, a member of the Iowa Democratic Party Central Committee, said he'd like to see the lines redrawn so a Democrat would have a better electoral chance in Northwest Iowa. Sokolowski said one sensible way to draw the lines would be east-west, with four districts stacked from north to south.
"You'd have southern Iowa, the middle south, the middle north and then northern Iowa," he said.
King, who is critical of using the current census rules to shape congressional representation, wouldn't speculate about the different ways the district he now serves could be redrawn by the commission. He also said he wouldn't care if he got put in with another congressman in redistricting, since it would come out of a good commission process.
"Those are the breaks," King said.
History of Iowa congressional seat totals
1931-- A population standstill saw Iowa drop from 11 to nine districts
1971 -- Drop from seven to six seats
1991 -- Drop from six to five seats, the least since the 1850s
Because Iowa's population growth hasn't kept pace with other states, the 2012 congressional races could take place in redrawn districts, certainly larger and perhaps drastically reconfigured. Two of the state's five congressional members would likely be placed in the same district, according to Morningside College political science professor Patrick McKinlay.
Potential scenarios, assuming no incumbents step aside, pit current 5th District Congressman Steve King against 4th District Congressman Tom Latham, both are Republicans, or involve either King or Latham facing off with Democratic 3rd District Congressman Leonard Boswell.
"I don't think you could rule anything out," McKinlay said.
If the state does lose a seat, a nonpartisan commission will draw the congressional district lines. The Legislature must approve the plan.
While political junkies getting excited over those possible races, McKinlay said the Iowa commission has historically kept political considerations out of how the lines are drawn.
"We are well served by our nonpartisan process of doing this, because we need to make sure we are protecting one person, one vote... What makes Iowa unique is that those political questions don't drive the process, or at least they don't drive the first draft," McKinlay said.
King, who lives in Kiron, agreed, saying the five commission members are sworn to secrecy and aren't to take into account the voting registration demographics of the districts or where congress members live. As compared to states where "gerrymandering" of districts takes place, King said, "Iowa has the best redistricting law in the nation."
Iowa, which in the early 20th century reached a high point with 11 congressional seats, now has an estimated population of 3 million. If the drop to four districts occurs, each districts would serve about 750,000 residents, instead of five with about 585,000 residents.
The drawing of the congressional district lines will impact which federal projects lawmakers seek, McKinlay said. He noted that a northwest/north central district containing U.S. Highway 20 from Sioux City to Fort Dodge would mean one congressman could focus much effort on the long-sought project of widening the highway to four lanes.
The 5th District now is the biggest, most rural district in the state, covering 32 counties in western Iowa, from three to five counties wide, from the Minnesota border down to Missouri. It's very reliable GOP turf, where Republicans outnumber Democrats by 45,000. If the 5th District adds heavily rural counties a bit to the east, that district could approach nearly half of the 99 Iowa counties.
Creating another large district "could be a hard thing to swallow" for some Iowans, McKinlay said.
Dick Sokolowski of Holstein, a member of the Iowa Democratic Party Central Committee, said he'd like to see the lines redrawn so a Democrat would have a better electoral chance in Northwest Iowa. Sokolowski said one sensible way to draw the lines would be east-west, with four districts stacked from north to south.
"You'd have southern Iowa, the middle south, the middle north and then northern Iowa," he said.
King, who is critical of using the current census rules to shape congressional representation, wouldn't speculate about the different ways the district he now serves could be redrawn by the commission. He also said he wouldn't care if he got put in with another congressman in redistricting, since it would come out of a good commission process.
"Those are the breaks," King said.
History of Iowa congressional seat totals
1931-- A population standstill saw Iowa drop from 11 to nine districts
1971 -- Drop from seven to six seats
1991 -- Drop from six to five seats, the least since the 1850s
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