Every campaign comes with its own set of buzzwords. They go from novel to annoying in 3.6 seconds.
At the top of 2008’s tiresome litany is the so-called “narrative.”
Every campaign and candidate must have a “narrative.” For example, Hillary Clinton is experienced but disliked, politically masterful but not necessarily electable.
Barack Obama is fresh but inexperienced, intriguing but untested.
And so on.
In elections past, such shorthand sketches fell under the umbrella of “conventional wisdom.” At best, they are shaped by observing the candidates over the course of a grueling campaign. At worst, they are weak, preseason prognostications used by reporters and others to shape coverage. In reality, the campaign is a mix of both.
Obviously, a campaign’s whole job is to shape its own narrative and to influence the picture painted of others. John Edwards’ backers are working hard to dress him up as a hard-charging, tough-talking populist forged from humble beginnings. They’re also portraying his leading rivals as special-interest-loving Washingtonians.
Expensive haircuts, hedge funds and high fees for poverty speeches made him look, at times, more Trump than Truman.
Some of that criticism is superficial and unfair, but the healthy give and take between his backers and detractors is giving voters a fairly accurate view of Edwards’ strengths and weaknesses. In Edwards’ case, his narrative has been shaped and re-shaped by the ebb and flow of months, actually years, of campaigning.
That’s not always the case.
When Obama said he’d be willing to meet face-to-face with unfriendly leaders and attack terrorist targets in Pakistan, his remarks were swiftly squeezed into a convenient “Obama is naïve” package – with a big assist from the Clinton campaign. Obama was labeled as damaged political goods even though what he said was hardly dramatic or naïve.
Chances are the U.S. will have to talks with its rivals as part of efforts to stabilize the Middle East. And which president wouldn’t strike inside Pakistan if, say, Osama Bin Laden were in U.S. sights? They all would.
Obama was also hit for saying he wouldn’t use nukes against terrorists. So who would?
At the bottom line the disagreements between the rivals were small and semantic. But the story grew big because it neatly fit the narrative – Clinton is experienced and Obama is inexperienced. It’s a nice, tidy package.
Also weak is the Clinton-isn’t-electable narrative, based largely on early, unreliable polling and the slanted opinions of analysts and consultants. Remember how electable wealthy war hero John Kerry looked to Democrats in the winter of 2003-2004? By the following August, he was toast.
Any pronouncements on general election prowess or weakness made now should be taken with a grain of salt. There’s no way of knowing for certain what voters will want 14 months from now.
Here are a few other suspect narratives.
Rudy Giuliani is the most electable: Again, says who? Giuliani has attributes, to be sure, but he’s also the Republican with the best chance of being swift-boated, only this time by firefighters and others who don’t hold fond memories of his honor. This narrative also discounts the formidable skills of Rudy rival Mitt Romney, who leads in Iowa.
Clinton is the inevitable Democratic nominee: National polls show Clinton with a commanding lead. But she’s in a tight dogfight in early voting states. Historically, the polls in early states, where the candidates are actually campaigning, are a more accurate picture of the race.
The “top tier” is set in cement: Lightning could still strike for candidates such as Bill Richardson on the Democratic side and Mike Huckabee in the GOP race. Richardson turned in a solid debate performance over the weekend and Huckabee paid a discount price for his straw poll win. Even if it was a downsized event, it showed his rising strength among conservatives.